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Tuesday, October 19, 2004

TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN

The presidential candidates are spending most of their time in the so-called battleground states. This strategy is predicated on the idea that more exposure to the voters is a good thing. George Bush believes that the more times he comes to Pennsylvania, the more people will vote for him. John Kerry believes the same.

As someone who has never found politicians (as a class) to be especially likeable, I question this assumption. My theory is that the opposite is just as likely to be true.

In Richard Nixon's landslide win in 1972, he failed to carry the District of Columbia. This is where he has spent most of his time in the preceding four years; the people most familiar with him couldn't bear the thought of any more years.

George W. Bush's strategists are often faulted for pouring resources into California in the last weeks of the 2000 campaign, rather than in states that were more closely contested. I believe this was a stroke of genius. If Bush had spent more money and time familiarizing himself to Florida voters, he might have the lost the state by such a great margin that his father's appointees couldn't have gotten away with awarding him the win.

On the other side of the fence, Al Gore lost his home state of Tennessee in 2000.

In New Jersey, the Democratic governor recently outed himself and announced his resignation (to take effect any day now). This political/sexual scandal has apparently dragged John Kerry's New Jersey numbers down so low that is seems somewhat possible that President Bush will win the state. Taking heart from these latest polls, Mr. W made his first campaign appearance in NJ this week.

I don't know who will win the election, but I'm predicting that Kerry will carry New Jersey handily.

And if I were advising Kerry, I'd get him on the first plane out of Florida and park him in Massachusetts or some other safe state where he can do as little damage to himself as possible.




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